Immigration Plan 2026-2028: What to Expect in Canada’s Next Levels Plan

Introduction

The federal government of Canada, through Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), will soon publish its new Immigration Plan 2026-2028 — laying out how many permanent residents and temporary residents the country intends to admit. The current timeline indicates the plan will be published on or before November 1, 2025. This article explores what we can reasonably expect from this upcoming plan, based on prior targets, current policy shifts, and stakeholder consultations.

What is the Immigration Plan?

Every year, IRCC publishes an “Immigration Levels Plan” (often called the Levels Plan) which presents admission targets for permanent residents for that year, and notional targets for the following two years. For the first time more recently, the Plan has also included targets for temporary residents (workers, students) to reflect the full scope of migration. The upcoming 2026-2028 iteration therefore is expected to build on that broader approach.

The Plan serves multiple functions: it signals government priorities (economic, family, humanitarian), it gives transparency to immigration goals, and it sets the framework for planning settlement, integration and labour-market alignment.

Key Context: What the Previous Plan Tells Us

Before looking ahead, it’s useful to review the recent past to see trends which will inform the new immigration plan.

Permanent Resident Targets

The most recent publicly published plan covers 2025-2027. According to IRCC’s supplementary information:

• The target for 2025 is 395,000 new permanent residents.

• For 2026 the number is projected at 380,000.

• For 2027 the projection is 365,000.

These figures reflect a downward adjustment compared to earlier targets which had been in the neighborhood of 485,000 for 2024 and up to 500,000 for 2025/2026 under the 2024-2026 Plan.

Temporary Resident Targets

In the 2025-2027 Plan IRCC included targets for temporary residents (student and worker categories) for the first time.

• For 2025: overall arrivals (temporary) are set at 673,650.

• For 2026: 516,600.

• For 2027: 543,600.
  Within that:

• Students: 305,900 for each of 2025-2027.

• Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): 82,000 each year.

• International Mobility Program (IMP) workers: 285,750 in 2025; 128,700 in 2026; 155,700 in 2027.

Policy Priorities in Immigration Plan

Some of the key policy themes driving these numbers are:

• A shift to prioritize in-Canada applicants (temporary residents transitioning to permanent residence) – more than 40% of permanent residents in 2025 are expected to be those already in Canada.

• A desire to stabilise or reduce population growth in the short term, because of pressures on housing, infrastructure and services. For example, one analysis projects a population decline of 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before growth returns in 2027.

• A priority on francophone immigration outside of Québec, with targets rising to 8.5% in 2025, 9.5% in 2026, and 10% in 2027 of overall permanent resident admissions.

• A goal to reduce the non-permanent resident population to below 5% of Canada’s total population by end of 2026.

From these trends we can draw reasonable expectations about what will appear in the 2026-2028 Plan.

What Can We Expect in the Immigration Plan 2026-2028?

Based on the trajectory above, stakeholder consultation documents, and publicly-available commentary, here are several key themes and likely features of the upcoming Plan.

1. Permanent Resident Levels & Stabilisation

The government made an election promise (via the Liberal party) to stabilise permanent residence admissions at less than 1% of Canada’s population each year. With Canada’s population at about 41.65 million as of July 1, 2025, that puts an upper bound at about 416,500 permanent resident admissions. (41.65 million × 1% = 416,500).
Your original article correctly identifies that assumption.

Given the recent pattern — 395,000 for 2025, 380,000 for 2026, 365,000 for 2027 — one might anticipate the 2026 number in the new plan to remain near 380,000 or perhaps slightly higher, with 2027 and 2028 perhaps flattened or gently adjusted. The government appears to be signaling a move from large increases toward more controlled, sustainable levels. So we might reasonably expect something like: ~380,000-400,000 for 2026, with 2027 and 2028 similar or only marginally different.

2. Economic Immigration Focus

The economic class continues to be emphasized. In the previous Plan, roughly 62% of total permanent residents by 2027 were projected to be in the economic class (skilled workers, trades, regionally based programs)

Within economic immigration, the emphasis on in-Canada temporary residents (“In-Canada Focus”) and specific categories like “Federal Economic Priorities” remains important. Your article noted the shift in categories for the Express Entry stream. Hence, in the new Plan we can expect this focus to continue, possibly with increased targets for workers already in Canada, or for sectors facing labour shortages (health care, trades, STEM, francophone labour markets).

3. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Adjustments in Immigration Plan

In the previously published plan there was a sharp reduction in PNP targets — for example PNP admissions target cut from 110,000 (2024) to 55,000 for 2025-2027. Your article correctly cites those figures. The reason given is that provinces/territories received smaller allocations initially, though some provinces have since negotiated increases.

For the 2026-2028 Plan one might expect that the PNP target will reflect adjustments upward from the 55,000 baseline — though how much upward remains to be seen. The provinces’ recent negotiations suggest that the federal government may increase nomination allocations for provinces that demonstrated labour/settlement capacity. So in the upcoming Plan we might see a PNP target perhaps in the 55,000-80,000 range annually, with some provinces given higher allocations.

4. Francophone Immigration Outside Québec

As noted, the 2025-2027 Plan sets the francophone immigration target outside of Québec at 8.5% (2025), 9.5% (2026), 10% (2027) of overall permanent resident admissions.

Since the government has reiterated its commitment to boosting francophone immigration, the 2026-2028 plan may continue this incremental increase — potentially moving toward 10-12% by 2028. If the government’s election promise to reach 12% by 2029 remains credible, the 2026-2028 Plan could show an upward trend such as 9.5% (2026), 10% (2027), 11% (2028).

5. Temporary Resident Targets and Caps

One of the biggest shifts in the recent Plans is the inclusion of temporary resident targets and the objective of reducing the non-permanent resident population to below 5% of Canada’s total population by end of 2026.

As your article points out, the 2025-2027 Plan sets targets of 673,650 (2025), 516,600 (2026), 543,600 (2027) for overall temporary arrivals. Given that the 2026-2028 Plan will likely reinforce this approach, we can expect the new plan to reaffirm the objective of reducing temporary resident numbers relative to population size, maybe setting further reductions or stabilising levels.

The consultation survey suggests that for 2026, the numbers currently considered include: 210,700 foreign workers and 305,900 international students. 
Whether those exact numbers will appear in the Plan or be adjusted remains to be seen, but the trend toward clear temporary-resident planning is likely to continue.

6. Study Permit Caps & International Students

It remains uncertain whether the new Plan will alter the targets for international students. The current Plan holds students constant at 305,900 annually for 2025-2027.

Given ongoing pressure regarding housing, affordable accommodation, student visa backlogs and the “non-permanent resident” population share, the 2026-2028 Plan may maintain or slightly adjust the student arrival target — or introduce more constraints on study permits via provincial attestation letters (PALs) or field-of-study requirements, as earlier regulatory changes suggest. Your article mentions these caps correctly.

7. Settlement, Infrastructure & Integration Considerations

Behind all the numbers is the practical challenge of settlement, integration and infrastructure. According to IRCC’s Strategic Plan, one of the department’s key responsibilities is to ensure that the immigration system is “well-managed and coordinated”, with a focus on capacity to settle and integrate newcomers.

Thus one important expectation of the 2026-2028 Immigration Plan is that admission targets will be closely tied to settlement capacity — including housing, labour-market integration, regional immigration strategies (including smaller centres), and supports for Francophone and Indigenous populations.

Implications for Applicants & Stakeholders in the new Immigration Plan

Given this outlook for the Immigration Plan 2026-2028, what does it imply for individuals, employers, provinces and communities? Here are some practical implications:

For Prospective Immigrants

• With stable or slightly reduced permanent resident targets, competition in economic streams (e.g., Express Entry) is likely to remain intense. If the in-Canada focus continues, those already in Canada as students/workers may have a comparative advantage.

• If francophone immigration continues to rise, French-language proficiency and settlement outside Quebec could become an increasingly important asset.

• Those considering provincial nominee streams should keep an eye on which provinces gain increased allocations and which specific provincial immigration pathways are expanded — earlier negotiation successes by provinces signal opportunity.

For Employers & Regional Labour-Market Planning

• The emphasis on aligning immigration with labour-market needs means employers in priority sectors (healthcare, trades, technology, Francophone-region industries) may benefit from targeted immigration streams.

• Regions outside major metropolitan centers may receive greater attention, especially in Francophone communities, smaller provinces and territories, which could open up regional immigration possibilities.

• The cap on temporary residents (and stricter rules for student and worker permits) means employers relying strictly on temporary labour may see shifts — the migration policy is tilting a bit more toward permanent pathways.

Immigration Plan For Provinces, Territories & Settlement Service Providers

• Provinces and territories should engage proactively in negotiations regarding their PNP nomination allocations as the federal government continues to consult and negotiate.

• Settlement agencies, especially those working with Francophone minority communities outside Quebec, will likely see increased emphasis from IRCC, which may translate into funding and program opportunities.

• Housing, infrastructure and service-delivery planning must account for admitted newcomers — the fact that the non-permanent resident share target (≤ 5% of population) is explicitly tied to strains on housing suggests that local service capacity will be one factor that influences admission targets.

For the Study-Permit and Temporary Worker Ecosystems

• With the goal of reducing the non-permanent resident population to under 5%, students and temporary workers should expect further adjustments: e.g., caps on study-permit intake, tighter eligibility criteria, more emphasis on transition to permanent residence rather than extended temporary status.

• Employers reliant on the TFWP (Temporary Foreign Worker Program) may encounter slower growth of intake, potentially tighter wage/occupation thresholds and more scrutiny of low-wage streams — in line with recent government announcements. Your article’s mention of changes to TFWP is very relevant.

What to Watch For When the Immigration Plan Is Released

When the 2026-2028 Immigration Plan is published on or before November 1, 2025, these are key elements and signals to look for:

• Overall permanent resident target for 2026, 2027 and 2028. Will it be around 380,000 or higher/lower?

• Breakdown by category: economic, family reunification, refugees/humanitarian. Any major shifts?

• Proportion of admissions via economic class, and especially details on in-Canada pathways and regional/trade/sector-based streams.

• PNP nomination allocation: what annual target will be set for provinces and territories? Are increases shown from previous 55,000 baseline?

• Francophone immigration target (outside Québec) for 2027–2028: will it continue rising toward 11-12%?

• Temporary resident targets: total numbers for students and workers, and whether caps are tightened or maintained.

• Settlement and regional targets: Are there specific goals for immigration to smaller communities, rural areas, Francophone minority regions, Indigenous communities?

• Policy signals: regulatory changes referenced (e.g., in-Canada transition pathways, field-of-study changes for PGWP, TFWP reforms). These often accompany the Plan.

• Budget/operational capacity: The Plan may reference IRCC’s capacity to process applications, integrate newcomers, and deliver settlement services (which underpins the admission numbers).

• Consultation results: The survey for 2026-2028 consulted stakeholders on priorities (workers vs students, skilled vs lower-skilled immigration). These results may be featured.

Challenges & Considerations

There are a number of challenges that could influence how the Immigration Plan 2026-2028 shapes up:

• Labour-market alignment: While economic immigration is still a priority, identifying which sectors and regions face long-term shortages is complex. The “in-Canada focus” means that transitions from temporary to permanent status must be smooth.

• Housing and infrastructure pressures: The decision to reduce or stabilise immigration targets is partly a reaction to pressure on housing and services. If housing shortages remain acute, the government may keep or further tighten targets. Parliamentary Budget Officer

• Temporary resident overflow: The goal to reduce non-permanent resident share to below 5% implies tighter controls on temporary visas; balancing the need for labour and students against infrastructure/housing remains delicate.

• Global competition and humanitarian commitments: Canada must still meet its international refugee/humanitarian obligations, which can constrain flexibility in economic/temporary admission planning.

• Political and public sentiment: As surveys show, many Canadians believe immigration levels are too high. Canada Immigration Services This public sentiment feeds into policy choices and may influence the Plan’s conservatism.

Conclusion

The upcoming Immigration Plan 2026-2028 is set at a pivotal juncture: Canada is moving from a phase of rapid expansion of immigration toward more managed, sustainable levels that reflect labour-market needs, settlement capacity and infrastructure constraints. While major structural changes (e.g., eligibility criteria, pathway design) will influence the details, the broad picture suggests: permanent resident targets near the range of ~380,000 annually (with some variation), continued emphasis on economic and francophone immigration, more clearly defined PNP allocations for provinces, and tighter controls on temporary resident intake (students/workers) to ensure the non-permanent resident share of the population declines toward 5%.

For applicants and stakeholders, this means the competition may remain stiff, but opportunities in in-Canada pathways, regional/minority language streams, and province-led immigration may be increasingly important. Keeping abreast of the Plan’s release and aligning one’s strategy with the announced priorities will be key.